Scout’s Analysis: Thoughts on trade candidates and Calgary’s next move
It’s been a quiet week on the trade front in the NHL, but that figures to change with the draft upcoming. Jason Bukala shares his scouting reports on some top trade candidates, and ponders what’s next in Calgary.
With the NHL draft less than a week away, and free agent season to quickly follow, the trade winds are blowing. It seems inevitable some key players, from different organizations, for different reasons, could be moved in the coming days.
Using our list of 22 trade candidates to keep an eye on, here’s a closer look at what some of those players could bring to a new team.
Rebuild or re-tool in Calgary?
The Calgary Flames are a team to keep a close eye on. Newly minted GM Craig Conroy has some difficult decisions to make and the direction he chooses to go will quickly determine if the franchise is heading towards “retooling” or “rebuilding”. Here are some Flames players who could be moved, what the return could be, and the effect losing the player will have on the Flames roster:
Scouting Report: Hanifin is a two-way defenceman who averaged over 23 minutes of ice time this past season and was deployed in all situations. He also takes on the challenge of matching up against the opponents’ top six forwards. Hanifin isn’t overly physical for his stature. He leans bumper more than punisher. He provides better than secondary offence as a second pairing power play defenceman. On the penalty kill he closes quickly on opponents and gets in the lane to disrupt and block shots.
Hanifin is already a veteran of 600 games in the NHL and has several solid years ahead of him. He’s a higher end middle pairing defenceman.
Return if traded: It’s reasonable to forecast the Flames receiving a first- and second-round pick in return for Hanifin, provided he agreed to sign an extension with the team acquiring his rights.
If the Flames are looking to make a “hockey trade” – player for player – it’s going to be difficult to find a partner willing to move a top four defenceman or top six forward for Hanifin’s services. Especially since the Flames are dealing from a position of weakness with Hanifin already indicating he won’t be signing an extension in Calgary and he has an eight team no-move clause in his contract.
Possible trade partners:
• Boston Bruins: They have bodies (Matt Grzelcyk? Jake DeBrusk?) but they don’t have draft capital to exchange
• Detroit Red Wings: They have loads of draft capital and multiple picks in the early rounds of the 2023 draft.
Scouting Report: Lindholm has historically averaged between 18 and 20 minutes per game of ice time and he’s a versatile player who is used in all situations. He’s reliable. He competes. He cares. He scored fewer goals this year (22 down from 42 the season prior) and part of the reason was that he didn’t get pucks to the net as often and wasn’t able to find the same quality scoring areas as he did in 2021-22. His playmaking remained consistent, though. Lindholm is reliable in all three zones, won 55 per cent of his draws, and has some bump to his game (98 hits). He slides into a top six role on any team in the league.
Return if traded: Lots. Lindholm is a player who could assist with pushing a contending team over the top next season. He could also be the forward a fringe team could use to go to another level. Lindholm doesn’t have trade protection in his contract so the Flames have some flexibility. I would expect Calgary to ask for two first round picks spread out over three draft cycles.
Possible trade partners:
• Columbus Blue Jackets: The Jackets are aggressively looking to contend next season and they have a ton of draft capital. Would they consider moving their second (2023), first (2024), and third (2024)?
• Philadelphia Flyers: Travis Konecny and a 2023 third (via NYR) for Lindholm? Konecny is only 26 and he’s coming off a season where he scored 31 goals and 30 assists.
• Nobody: Until the Flames know for sure Lindholm isn’t interested in signing an extension they’ll sit tight and give it their best shot to re-sign him. Otherwise, they could still move him at next year’s trade deadline. They can’t allow him to walk to free agency next summer, though.
Scouting Report: Posted a career high in points this past season and was used in all situations. Won over 50 per cent of his draws. Aggressive directing pucks on goal (260 shots). Defensively responsible (plus-24) and a “glue guy” in the middle of the lineup. Aging veteran who still plays the game with sound pace. Historically a secondary scorer. Durable. Has had a mostly healthy career to date. Middle six forward.
Return if traded: Moving Backlund at his age and with his role, will not net the same return as Hanifin or Lindholm, but Backlund still provides value. An upper echelon team looking to shore up their middle six with a veteran could overpay for his services.
Backlund could return a second-round pick in the upcoming draft. If he remains in Calgary, and scores the way he did this past season, a team might be willing to part with a first-round pick at the deadline so it might be better to wait it out with Backlund. At the end of the day Backlund has some say where he goes since he has a 10-team “no trade” list in his deal.
Possible trade partner:
• Toronto Maple Leafs: The Leafs make sense with Brad Treliving having a long relationship with Backlund. It will be difficult for Toronto to pull off, though, since they don’t have the draft capital to make it happen at this stage. Would they be willing to part with a much younger Timothy Liljegren and their third-round pick in 2024?
Thoughts on other trade candidates:
Karlsson is coming off an incredible offensive season. The transitional defenceman is a risk/reward player who has defensive deficiencies, but brings an elite level of offence. He’d quarterback the first PP unit on most teams in the league. Karlsson can play up to 25 minutes per game at even strength and on the PP. His legs look young again. His contract is very expensive ($11.5 million AAV) and has four years remaining. Karlsson also has full say in where he lands next with his no-movement clause. The Sharks will be asked to retain half of his contract in a transaction, which will drive up their asking price in return.
San Jose is clearly in rebuild mode, but Karlsson wants to win now. Would a team like Seattle be willing to part with their first-round pick (2023) and one of the three second round picks they have in this draft if the Sharks agreed to retain half of Karlsson’s contract?
A coveted right shot defender, Pesce leans two-way defenceman and is used in all situations in Carolina. He’s quick to space and pivots and jumps to pucks effectively when they are chipped deep into his zone. His read/react game is sound and he has reliable spatial awareness in all three zones. He’s not overly physical for his stature. Pesce is capable with the puck. He outlets appropriately and contributes secondary offence. He brings value and he’s very steady. Coaches can rely on him to play to his identity. He’s a middle pairing defenceman who can play top-pairing minutes if required. Pesce averaged 22 minutes of ice time this past season.
If Carolina moves on from Pesce they will have a large void to fill in their lineup. I’m sure they would prefer to get an NHL defenceman in return, but it will be difficult to find a team willing to give up a middle pair blueliner of their own. It’s for that reason Carolina will likely have to accept draft capital and look to add a defenceman in free agency. Could Pesce bring, at least, the same return as Vladislav Gavrikov, a first-round pick (2023) and a third-round pick (2024)?
Konecny’s role evolved this past season. Prior to 2022-23 the majority of his ice came at even strength and the power play, but this year he averaged 1:50 per game on the penalty kill as his role increased there and he skated over 20 minutes per night in all situations. He led the Flyers in scoring for the second straight year and flipped the script by scoring more goals than assists. Konecny is a skilled energy provider who can get under the skin of opponents. His three-zone detail ranges. An outlier statistically is his minus-35 rating total over the past two seasons, but Konecny is a top six winger.
I’m not sure why the Flyers would entertain offers on Konecny, actually. I believe he can be part of the solution because he’s still only 26 years young. Scorers like him, who play the way he does, are hard to find. The Flyers are more likely to overpay for someone like Konecny down the road in trade. It reminds me of when the Toronto Maple Leafs traded out Nazem Kadri. If the Flyers do decide to trade Konecny there will be a lineup of teams interested. I personally would hold on to him.
Sharangovich can be an enigma to scout. For some reason he’s traditionally been a slow starter at the beginning of the year. He also seems to score in streaks. There is much to like about him when he’s on, however. He has good size, he moves well, he drives the middle lane off the puck and scores from around the crease, and he has very good hands and the ability to corral pucks quickly and deposit them in the net.
His role in New Jersey fell off this past season. From the outside looking in he doesn’t look to be a fit for where the team is going in the future. I see Sharangovich as a middle-six forward who still has top-six upside and can be used in all situations. Factoring in his young age (26) makes him even more attractive as a trade target. Would San Jose entertain sending their second-round pick in (2023) to New Jersey in exchange for Sharangovich? Another ask could be New Jersey re-acquiring their own second (2024) and seventh (2024) they sent to San Jose in the Timo Meier transaction.
